Tokyo's Redevelopment Supercycle: Every Major Project, Mapped

TL;DR: Tokyo is in the middle of a once-in-a-generation redevelopment wave: roughly a decade of mega-projects clustered on a handful of rail nodes, built by a small club of developers with deep pockets. The pattern is consistent and tradeable: land within walking distance of a finished or near-finished project tends to reprice upward, and the gap between “announced” and “complete” is where the value compounds. In the 2026 official land prices, every ward hosting a flagship scheme beat the 23-ward residential average. This page is the single map: what is built at each node, what is still coming, who buys there, what it yields, and where the timelines have already slipped.

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Why a “supercycle,” not just a building boom

Tokyo always has cranes up. What makes this different is concentration and scale. A handful of nodes (Azabudai/Toranomon, Shibuya, the Yaesu/Nihonbashi side of Tokyo Station, Shinagawa/Takanawa, the Bay and Nishi-Shinjuku) are being rebuilt more or less simultaneously, on 10-to-20-year clocks, by the same small club: Mori Building, Mitsubishi Estate, Mitsui Fudosan, Tokyu and JR East.

The macro backdrop does the heavy lifting. In the 2026 official land prices (令和8年地価公示, base date January 1, 2026), residential land in the five central wards averaged ¥2,138,700/㎡, up 13.0% year on year, against +9.0% for the 23 wards as a whole; central commercial land rose 13.6% (Tokyo Metropolitan Government Bureau of Finance). New condos in the 23 wards averaged ¥136.13M in calendar 2025 (+21.8%), while Greater Tokyo supply of 21,962 units was the lowest since 1973 (Real Estate Economic Institute, 2025 annual). Scarce supply, a weak yen and a structural pipeline of trophy buildings explain most of the move. Redevelopment is its visible, mappable edge.

The honest caveat up front: the gains are uneven, and the resale market has started to cool. In August 2026 REINS recorded 23-ward resale condo contracts down 20.6% year on year (the eighth straight monthly decline) and the average contract price at ¥1.3269M/㎡, −0.3%, the first year-on-year dip in 76 months (REINS Market Watch, Aug 2026; 23-ward average, so mix effects apply). A tower three minutes from a finished Hills project behaves nothing like a walk-up fifteen minutes away, and in a flatter market the map matters more than the headline.

2026 official land prices in the redevelopment wards

What the official survey says about the wards hosting each node. Prices are ward averages of official standard sites; YoY is the average change at continuing sites.

Ward	Redevelopment nodes	Residential ¥/㎡	YoY	Commercial ¥/㎡	YoY
Minato	Azabudai, Toranomon, Roppongi, Takanawa Gateway, Shinagawa Station	3,013,700	+16.6%	6,991,800	+14.0%
Chuo	Yaesu, Nihonbashi, Harumi	1,930,000	+13.8%	11,385,400	+13.5%
Chiyoda	Tokiwabashi (Torch Tower), Otemachi	3,631,400	+10.7%	7,356,500	+13.1%
Shibuya	Shibuya station area	1,874,100	+11.0%	9,297,600	+13.8%
Shinagawa	Oimachi and the Greater Shinagawa corridor	1,244,100	+13.9%	2,470,400	+16.3%
Shinjuku	Nishi-Shinjuku	1,131,600	+11.2%	6,159,400	+13.8%
Koto	Toyosu, Ariake, Shinonome	661,500	+11.9%	1,310,300	+15.6%
Central 5 wards (aggregate)		2,138,700	+13.0%	8,211,500	+13.6%
Tokyo 23 wards average		856,400	+9.0%	4,015,100	+13.8%

Source: 令和8年地価公示 (2026 official land prices, base date 2026-01-01, published 2026-03-17), Tokyo Metropolitan Government Bureau of Finance, r8kouji. All 23 wards: Tokyo 23 Wards Property Data 2026.

How to read it:

• All seven wards beat the 23-ward residential average of +9.0%. Minato’s +16.6% was the fastest residential rise of all 23 wards, and Shinagawa ward’s +13.9% ranked third (ranking computed from the same table).
• Price levels differ by a factor of five. Koto’s residential average is about 22% of Minato’s (computed: ¥661,500 ÷ ¥3,013,700). That gap is the whole case for the Bay as an entry point, and the whole reason trophy-ward yields are thin.
• Geography trap: Shinagawa Station and Takanawa Gateway City physically sit in Minato ward, not Shinagawa ward. The Shinagawa row covers Oimachi and the southern end of the corridor.

The caveat matters as much as the table. These are ward-wide averages, not condo prices and not project-level measurements. Every ward in Tokyo rose in 2026, and several with no flagship scheme rose faster than central wards that have one: Taito (+14.2%) and Bunkyo (+13.8%) outpaced Chiyoda (+10.7%), Shibuya (+11.0%) and Shinjuku (+11.2%) on residential land. The table shows where land is expensive and still climbing; it does not prove that any given project lifted the land around it. For the full ranking and the central-versus-outer gap, see how central-ward land reprices.

Azabudai, Toranomon and Roppongi: the Mori Building corridor (Minato)

This is the center of gravity, and the most expensive new address in Japan. Mori Building has spent roughly three decades turning the strip between Azabudai, Toranomon and Roppongi into a deliberately engineered district; Azabudai Hills alone carried a project cost near 640 billion yen (around USD 5bn, directional).

What was built

Four super-talls now stand within roughly fifteen minutes’ walk of each other (heights directional, as of writing):

• Azabudai Hills Mori JP Tower: 325.2m, 64 floors, opened 2023, Japan’s tallest building. Offices on the lower two-thirds, Aman Residences crowning the top.
• Toranomon Hills Station Tower: 266m, 49 floors, opened 2023, the fourth and final Toranomon Hills piece, built directly over a new Hibiya Line station entrance. You can walk from platform to lobby without stepping outside.
• Toranomon Hills Mori Tower: 255m, 52 floors, the 2014 original that started the Toranomon push.
• Roppongi Hills Mori Tower: 238m, the older anchor a short walk east.

Azabudai Hills added around 1,400 homes across Mori JP Tower, Residence A and Residence B, the last of which completed in late 2025. Around them sit a central green plaza, a British School campus, art museums, the Janu hotel, clinics and a venture-capital hub. Mori does not just build a tower; it builds a branded micro-city that a global tenant or buyer understands without a map.

The branded-residence price ladder

The headline product is Aman Residences, Tokyo, Aman’s first standalone branded residences anywhere: 91 apartments on the top floors of Mori JP Tower, a roughly 1,400 sqm spa, private dining and 24-hour concierge. They have reportedly sold out, and one unit is said to have changed hands for around JPY 20bn. If accurate, that is the most expensive home ever sold in Japan (directional, as of writing). Janu Tokyo, Aman’s younger, more social sister brand, opened its first property worldwide here in 2024. A branded-residence pitch lives or dies on the operator, and these are names a buyer in Singapore, Hong Kong or Los Angeles recognizes instantly.

Below the penthouse, smaller Azabudai two-bedrooms (around 70 sqm) have been reported in the JPY 600–800m band (directional). That is roughly ¥8.6–11.4M per ㎡ (computed), three to four times the 2025 average new-condo price of ¥2.879M/㎡ across the central six wards (Real Estate Economic Institute). Azabudai sits at the very top of the curve, not the middle of it. Say it plainly: “branded” is a premium you pay on entry and may not fully recover on exit. You are buying service, certainty and a name, not a discount. The full trophy thesis is in Tokyo Is Building Its Own Manhattan.

Who buys, and the tenant engine behind it

The buyer pool: overseas individuals (often from Hong Kong, Singapore, Taiwan, mainland China and the US) drawn by the weak yen and freehold ownership with no foreign-buyer restrictions; relocating executives and family offices paying for turnkey, English-speaking living; Asian high-net-worth buyers using Tokyo as a stability and currency hedge; and corporations leasing units for senior expatriate staff. For all of them, legibility (an asset a banker, tenant or next buyer understands instantly) is worth more than the last basis point of return.

Trophy residential only holds value if the surrounding economy keeps importing high earners. Mori JP Tower’s floor plates of around 4,800 sqm, among the largest in Japan, target global occupiers (tenants include Deutsche Bank and Deloitte), and the Tokyo Venture Capital Hub gathers roughly 70 domestic and international VC firms. Those offices are your future rental demand and resale pool; the on-site international school and clinics close the loop for families, the hardest tenant segment to serve in Tokyo.

Yield, and how to position

Gross yields on these ultra-prime units run roughly 2–3%, and below 2% at the very top. A JPY 1bn apartment renting at JPY 1.5–2m a month pencils out near 1.8–2.4% gross before management fees, taxes and branded-service charges. This is a capital-preservation-and-appreciation play, not a cash-flow play; Minato yields explain why. In land terms, Minato’s +16.6% residential rise in 2026 was the fastest of the 23 wards (table above).

Read the cluster as three flavors of the same thesis:

• Azabudai: the residential summit (Aman, Janu, the tallest tower, the highest prices). Buy for the trophy.
• Toranomon: the business spine, with metro-integrated access and large offices. Buy nearby for tenant depth.
• Roppongi: the established anchor. Roppongi Hills and Midtown gave the district its luxury DNA and offer more resale track record. Buy for proven liquidity.

The practical move is rarely a sold-out Aman unit. It is positioning around the cluster: resale stock in the older Mori towers, new units in Residence A and B, or trophy-grade product in adjacent Roppongi and Toranomon blocks where entry is a notch lower and yields a notch kinder. See the Minato ward guide and the Minato ward data for the block-level picture.

Shibuya: a station rebuild on a 2034 clock (Shibuya)

Most of Tokyo’s megaprojects are single towers on cleared land. Shibuya is a station rebuild: untangling a knot where four rail operators and nine lines crossed at different heights. Tokyu, JR, Tokyo Metro and the ward have spent over a decade pulling lines apart, building pedestrian decks and freeing parcels one by one. Slower and uglier than a single tower, but more durable: when it is done, the whole district works better. Full station-area completion is now targeted for around fiscal 2034, pushed back from an earlier 2027 target (directional, as of writing). The long runway is the opportunity, because the area reprices in stages rather than in one event.

Already built, and what each piece did

• Shibuya Hikarie (2012) was the opening act and proved the thesis: build quality space at the station and tenants come.
• Shibuya Stream (2018) began reclaiming the south side.
• Shibuya Scramble Square East (2019): 47 floors, roughly 230m, the tallest building in the ward, with the Shibuya Sky deck on top of the station. CyberAgent moved its headquarters here.
• Miyashita Park (2020) turned a tired elevated park into a 300-meter rooftop park over retail and a hotel (RAYARD Miyashita Park, around 90 tenants), reconnecting the Shibuya–Harajuku corridor.
• Shibuya Sakura Stage (July 2024): a roughly 254,000 sqm complex on the Sakuragaoka side with the 39-story Shibuya Tower and 30-story Sakura Tower, offices, residences, retail, a Hyatt House and a startup program. Google’s Japan operation sits along this southern axis.

Still to come

The Snøhetta-designed Shibuya Upper West Project broke ground in March 2025 on the old Tokyu Department Store flagship site, targeting completion around 2029 with a hotel, rental residences and the relocated Bunkamura museum. The Central and West towers of Scramble Square are due around 2031, and the full rebuild runs to roughly fiscal 2034 (directional).

The tenant base is the real asset

Shibuya has been Tokyo’s tech and creative cluster since the late-1990s “Bit Valley” era: CyberAgent, DeNA, Mixi, GMO, DMM and a long tail of startups grew up here, with Google and design, advertising and gaming firms on top. The rebuild re-anchored that base: when new Grade-A floors opened at the station, the marquee names took them rather than decamping to Marunouchi or Toranomon. Each opening has filled fast, and Tokyo prime office vacancy of roughly 2.6% (directional, as of writing) says those employers are expanding. Office strength upstream is the leading indicator for residential demand downstream: well-paid people in their late 20s to 40s who pay for a short commute.

Where the residential dividend lands

Shibuya Station itself is commercial. The dividend shows up in the rings:

• Shibuya ward overall: residential land averaged ¥1,874,100/㎡ in 2026 (+11.0%) and commercial ¥9,297,600/㎡ (+13.8%) (2026 official land prices). The ward’s population was 230,880 on January 1, 2026, down 522, the only one of the 23 wards to shrink (Tokyo Statistics Division). Demand here is about who works and plays in the ward, not headcount growth.
• Daikanyama: ten minutes’ walk or one stop away, the low-rise, design-led enclave that benefits most from a nicer Shibuya next door without the crowds. Land around the station has pushed toward roughly ¥2.4M/㎡, up nearly 7% in a year (directional). Supply is structurally scarce because the area is low-rise by character and zoning.
• Ebisu: consistently near the top of Tokyo “most desirable place to live” surveys, anchored by Yebisu Garden Place, with Yamanote access and deep, stable professional rental demand.

Risks and the buyer’s playbook

It is not finished: hoarding, noise and disrupted routes will persist around the station into the early 2030s, so a station-front view today is not the view in 2031. Prices have already moved, so underwrite on yield and tenant quality, not a re-rating bet. Yields are thin; a unit that only works if prices keep rising at double digits is mispriced. Buy ones that work at flat rents.

• Maximum demand durability: a compact 1LDK–2LDK in Ebisu or Daikanyama within a short walk of the station. Easiest to let, easiest to exit.
• Lifestyle plus appreciation: a low-rise designer unit in Daikanyama, with scarce supply and strong owner-occupier demand.
• Pure rental yield: a smaller unit one or two stops out on a Shibuya-adjacent line, where pricing is softer but the same commuter base applies.

The neighborhood detail is in the Shibuya ward property guide.

Yaesu and Nihonbashi: the Tokyo Station east flank (Chuo / Chiyoda)

This is the most concentrated cluster of supertall ambition in the city. On the Yaesu side, Tokyo Midtown Yaesu (Yaesu Central Tower, about 240m) opened in 2022 under Mitsui Fudosan, with further Yaesu phases, including TOFROM YAESU (about 249m), completing across 2025 and the 2-chome area around 2028.

The headline is just north: Mitsubishi Estate’s Torch Tower at Tokiwabashi, planned at about 385m, is slated to become Japan’s tallest building on completion around 2028, with an observation deck, hotel and retail. Alongside it, Nihonbashi 1-chome redevelopment (Mitsui Fudosan and Nomura) targets around 2026.

The Tokyo Station east side has historically lagged the Marunouchi (west) side, and this wave is closing that gap deliberately. The land is already priced as core: Chuo’s commercial average of ¥11,385,400/㎡ is the highest of the 23 wards and Chiyoda’s residential ¥3,631,400/㎡ the highest residential average (2026 official land prices). That is roughly ¥12.0M per tsubo for Chiyoda residential land (computed: ¥3,631,400 × 3.3058). When Torch Tower tops out, expect the market to re-rate Yaesu/Nihonbashi relative to Marunouchi. The risk: large projects here have slipped before, and 2028 dates are targets, not guarantees.

Shinagawa and Takanawa Gateway: the JR East and maglev bet (Minato / Shinagawa)

For decades Shinagawa was infrastructure, not address: Tokaido Shinkansen, Yamanote Line, a quick run to Haneda and the Konan business district, but never Marunouchi’s prestige. That is changing on purpose. JR East is repositioning itself from railway to urban developer around the Greater Shinagawa Area, a corridor spanning five stations (Oimachi, Shinagawa, Takanawa Gateway, Tamachi and Hamamatsucho), with work expected to run into the mid-2030s and JR East projecting more than 100 billion yen in revenue from it (directional, as of writing).

Takanawa Gateway City

This is not a single tower. It is a district of roughly 9.5 hectares on former rail-yard land between Shinagawa and the new Takanawa Gateway station on the Yamanote Line, with project investment quoted at 500 to 600 billion yen and total floor area of about 845,000 sqm (directional). Phase one opened on 27 March 2025, anchored by the first “Linkpillar” building; towers rise to about 172m. The rest (a second office-and-clinic tower, a cultural facility and the residential component) rolls out into 2026. When complete it includes:

• High-grade office space aimed at the headquarters of major international firms, plus large convention facilities.
• NEWoMan Takanawa, a retail program of roughly 60,000 sqm and around 200 tenants run by JR East’s LUMINE arm.
• A high-rise luxury hotel and a rooftop botanical space.
• Takanawa Gateway City Residence, around 847 homes when fully delivered (directional).
• A campus for Tokyo International School, an IB school for ages 5 to 18, which was scheduled to open in August 2026.

The school matters: relocating executive families on housing allowances need English-language schooling within walking distance, a combination that is thin in Tokyo.

The maglev: real, and later than advertised

Shinagawa is the planned Tokyo terminus of the Chuo Shinkansen maglev to Nagoya (about a 40-minute trip) and eventually Osaka, with the station being built below the existing Shinkansen platforms; a Namboku Line extension is also planned. The original 2027 opening is gone. JR Central has abandoned that date, and the line is now expected in the mid-2030s at the earliest, held up largely by a contested tunnel section in Shizuoka, with costs roughly doubled to around 11 trillion yen (directional, as of writing). If you underwrite a purchase today on a maglev ride going live in a couple of years, you are underwriting fiction.

What is actually arriving, and what prices say

Strip out the maglev and a thick stack of near-term drivers remains: Takanawa Gateway City completing through 2026; the Haneda Airport Access Line, a JR East link from Tokyo Station to Haneda through the corridor, targeted for around fiscal 2031 (directional); and the Shinkansen, Yamanote and airport connections that already exist. The area’s value does not depend on the maglev. The maglev is the call option on top.

The market is not waiting. In the 2026 official survey, the highest residential increase among Minato’s survey points was 3-7-23 Konan, the bay-side district at Shinagawa, up 22.2% in a year (directional, as of writing). Next door, Shinagawa ward’s residential average rose 13.9%, third-fastest in the 23 wards (table above). Foreign participation also concentrates in prime districts including Minato, at roughly 19% of activity versus around 13% across the rest of the 23 wards (directional).

From the desk — Around Shinagawa I keep seeing the same mistake: buyers chase the brand-new towers everyone already knows the name of, then balk at the older block two streets inland that shares the exact same station walk for noticeably less per meter. The ones who do best treat the maglev as a freebie they aren’t paying for, and underwrite only on the airport link and the new district that are actually landing this decade.

Three ways to position

1. Brand-new in the district. Takanawa Gateway City Residence and comparable new towers give the cleanest story (school, retail, prestige). You pay the most per square meter, and yields sit in the low single digits typical of prime Minato. A prestige and capital-preservation play.
2. Secondhand within a 10-minute walk. Older but well-located condos near Shinagawa, Takanawa and Konan buy the same connectivity at a discount to the new towers. This is usually the better risk-adjusted entry, especially inland where headlines have not caught up with Konan.
3. The patient maglev option. With a genuine mid-2030s horizon and tolerance for slippage, the terminus thesis is intact. Size it as the long-dated bet it is.

How much the station walk is worth is covered in the train line station premium.

The Bay: Toyosu, Harumi, Ariake (Koto / Chuo)

The waterfront is the volume play and Tokyo’s last large-scale blank canvas. Central Tokyo barely builds anymore; the bay belt (Toyosu, Harumi, Kachidoki, Ariake, Shinonome) holds the heaviest concentration of new-build tower supply, and Koto ward has the newest average building stock in the city (directional, around 4 years old as of writing). It is not a discount bin but a different product: newer, bigger towers aimed at families rather than at people buying an address. Koto’s 2026 residential land average was ¥661,500/㎡ (+11.9%), with commercial land up 15.6%, faster than any of the five central wards (2026 official land prices).

Toyosu (Koto) is the mature anchor: the Yurakucho Line reaches Ginza and Otemachi in roughly 20 minutes, plus Toyosu Market, teamLab Planets and LaLaport. It logged the highest transaction count of any rising-price district in the 23 wards in 2025, with prices up roughly 88% over five years to about ¥1.84M/㎡ (directional), and is usually the right place to start. Ariake (Koto) is younger and more planned (wide streets, Ariake Garden, family-amenity towers) but relies on the Yurikamome and Rinkai lines, trading commute speed for space. Harumi (Chuo) is technically in a central ward but functions like a bay island with no station; Kachidoki is a 17-to-22-minute walk, bridged by bus and BRT. Shinonome / Tatsumi is the quieter value end with solid family stock.

Harumi Flag: the legacy asset that delivered

Harumi Flag is the repurposed 2020 Olympic Village: Japan’s largest condominium complex, around 5,600 units across 24 buildings on roughly 18 hectares, on a train-less island many doubted. Some units at launch drew well over a hundred applications each, because the initial release was priced below comparable new Tokyo stock. Occupancy began in January 2024, and the population is filling toward roughly 12,000. By mid-2024 an NHK investigation found nearly 20% of one tranche (about 491 of 2,690 units) already rented out or resold for investment. Second-hand prices in Kachidoki/Harumi have pushed past ¥5M per tsubo in recent transactions (directional). The caveat: those early gains came partly from a deliberately low launch price, a one-off Olympic discount the next bay project will not repeat.

The bay numbers, plainly

All directional, as of writing:

• Price per ㎡: central premium wards (Minato, Chiyoda, Chuo core) run roughly ¥2.3–4.5M/㎡; Toyosu around ¥1.84M/㎡, for newer, bigger units.
• Rent: a 1LDK runs about ¥270,000–360,000/month in Minato, ¥220,000–290,000 in Chuo and ¥190,000–240,000 in Koto.
• Yield: the bay is not Tokyo’s top-yield zone (the cheaper east, such as Sumida/Kinshicho near 5%+ gross, is), but it beats the trophy wards, where the capital required rarely pencils out against rent.

The costs are longer commutes and reclaimed land. Modern towers here are piled to bedrock with foundations designed for liquefaction, but read the building’s seismic spec and time the actual walk to the actual station before you sign. Run the numbers in the net yield calculator, and see tower mansion vs older mansion for the trade-offs of tower stock.

Nishi-Shinjuku: the slow giant (Shinjuku)

Shinjuku handles the world’s busiest station, and its west side is finally being rebuilt. The centerpiece West Exit tower (about 260m, 48 floors) began construction in 2024, targeting completion around fiscal 2029, with the broader “Grand Terminal” and walkable-plaza vision extending into the 2040s. Shinjuku’s 2026 residential land average was ¥1,131,600/㎡ (+11.2%), about 38% of Minato’s (computed), with commercial land at ¥6,159,400/㎡ (+13.8%). That is a lot of transit power for the price: a patience trade where the catalysts are years out but the entry is cheaper than Shibuya or Minato for comparable connectivity. The ward’s risk map is in Kagurazaka vs Kabukicho.

How to actually use this map

The repeatable pattern: announcement is priced in slowly, completion fast, and the walkable radius around the podium re-rates hardest. Your edge is owning near a project that is funded and under construction but not yet open, then holding through the ribbon-cutting.

Node	Status (as of writing)	Next milestone	Main risk
Azabudai / Toranomon / Roppongi	Mature; Azabudai complete late 2025	Built out; watch Residence A/B resale pricing	Thin yield, branded premium on exit
Shibuya	Roughly two-thirds built	Upper West ~2029; Scramble Central/West ~2031; full ~FY2034	Construction disruption, already priced
Yaesu / Nihonbashi	Midtown Yaesu open; phases rolling	Torch Tower ~2028	Schedule slippage
Shinagawa / Takanawa Gateway	Phase one open March 2025	Remaining phases through 2026; Haneda line ~FY2031	Maglev mid-2030s at earliest
The Bay	Harumi Flag occupied since 2024	Continued tower supply	Commute, reclaimed land
Nishi-Shinjuku	West Exit tower under construction	~FY2029; Grand Terminal into 2040s	Very long clock

Three rules hold everywhere. Verify that a project is funded and under construction; a rumored plan is not a catalyst. Underwrite at flat rents, because the resale market has already stopped rising in aggregate. And judge the walk, not the brochure’s “area access.”

Pick the node that matches your hold period and risk tolerance, then go narrow: walk the blocks, pull comparables and pressure-test the yield. Size each node with the ward guides and the 23-ward data page, compare two areas side by side, and model the numbers with the buyer tools.

Sources: Tokyo Metropolitan Government Bureau of Finance — 2026 official land prices (令和8年地価公示), Tokyo Statistics Division — population by ward, Jan 2026, REINS Market Watch, Aug 2026, Real Estate Economic Institute — Greater Tokyo new condos 2025, Japan Property Central — Harumi Flag, Harumi Flag — Wikipedia, note.com — Top 10 rising-price districts in Tokyo, PLAZA HOMES — Ariake/Shinonome/Daiba area guide, PropertyAccess — Tokyo 23 wards price per sqm 2026, E-Housing — Tokyo disaster risk by ward, Bamboo Routes — Tokyo rental yields 2026, PLAZA HOMES — Tokyo rent prices 2025.